Ending Fossil Fuels: What Does It Really Mean?

Interview with Juliette JANNES and Maxime KATGELY by Le média VERT

Fossil fuel phase-out: a multi-sector challenge

Juliette JANNES and Maxime KATGELY, Rong yi Solutions cofounders, had the opportunity to contribute—via an interview with Vert—to a critical topic in the energy transition: the question of phasing out fossil fuels. This issue, inevitable during COP28, carries a complexity that is often misunderstood.

With our experience in petrochemicals and decarbonization practices, it is crucial to grasp what the abandonment of gas, oil, and coal truly entails. From the start of COP28, more than a hundred countries, including members of the European Union, expressed their desire for a rapid transition away from fossil fuels. However, this political will faces significant economic and structural realities. While we should be optimistic and determined in moving away from fossil fuels, we must also be realistic and pragmatic about the context and the consequences of such a transition.

Many hydrocarbon-producing countries strongly oppose this shift, and too much of the discussion is polarized around this resistance. Meanwhile, global fossil fuel consumption continues to rise, despite long-term forecasts predicting a decline. For instance, in France, the share of fossil fuels in final consumption has only decreased by 4% over a decade, raising questions about the effectiveness of current policies.

Furthermore, phasing out fossil fuels should not be seen merely as a change in energy models. Hydrocarbons are deeply integrated into our daily lives, far beyond energy production alone. Approximately 25% of crude oil is used in non-energy applications, such as the production of materials and chemicals. For example, the manufacturing of wind turbines and electric vehicles still relies heavily on these resources.

The IPCC projects a 60% reduction in oil consumption and a 45% reduction in gas by 2050 to keep global warming below 1.5°C. However, for this transition to succeed, all uses of hydrocarbons must decrease simultaneously. The interconnections between the various applications of hydrocarbons make the transition even more complex. A reduction in one area can create unwanted surpluses in another, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. Carbon neutrality scenarios for 2050 envision an electrification of transport, reducing the demand for fuels. Yet, the ability to redirect oil towards non-energy applications is limited.

Investments in research and development must focus on exploring viable alternatives for these uses, especially emphasizing carbon chain conversion. While solutions like bio-based plastics and plant-based chemistry exist, their adoption remains minimal. Bio-based chemistry accounts for only 2% of the market, and plastic recycling meets just 10% of demand. There’s a challenge of scale and cost: oil remains cheaper than its alternatives, making resource efficiency  and sobriety essential to reduce all uses.

In conclusion, the transition to a fossil-free economy requires a thoughtful and structured approach, moving beyond simple directives to hydrocarbon-producing countries. This change cannot be abrupt and must consider socio-economic realities, particularly for the most vulnerable countries. The challenges are numerous, but the need to rethink our dependence on fossil fuels is more urgent than ever.